We all have heard what’s been going on in Ukraine, full-scale war. The might of the Russian Federation vs the defiance of Ukraine, It’s not only a military conflict but also of wills.
By Gustavo Vives
In recent weeks Putin’s Russia has seized south Ukraine, the Dombas, and Slobaba Ukraine. The Ukrainians are being bombarded daily by air strikes, missile fire and bombarded by Russian artillery. Some say it’s only a matter of time before Ukraine falls (Newsweek) (Sky News Australia), but I disagree.
There are several key factors that suggest Ukraine is actually, despite heavy territorial losses winning the war against Russia. To see this we must first talk about the Ukrainian strategy in the war. Ukrainian strategy in the conflict has been hyper focused on out supplying the Russians (Republic World). The Ukranians cannot do this head on– they can’t directly fight the Russians on the front line and afford the losses, and if they take the fight to the Russians the Ukrainians will be destroyed. So the Ukrainian army has adopted a tried and tested strategy of overextension, this same strategy was used by the USA in the revolutionary war, by the Chinese during the Second World War and now by the Ukranians in this invasion. The strategy involves exploiting a better equipped enemy’s supply line by leading the enemy away from supply hubs and using hit and run tactics to make it so the enemy cannot reinforce and cannot counter attack. There is no better example than this than the 63 mile long Russian convoy that was on its way to Kyiv on March 5th. The convoy has been completely stopped, how? By exploiting their supply lines, the Russians could not refuel the tanks because the trucks that were supposed to come with fuel for the tanks were destroyed by the Ukranians. Without food or fuel the Russian convoy has just stopped and the equipment has begun to rot as the Ukranians harass them via Guerrilla Warfare. These tactics have been repeated all over the Russian offensive causing massive casualties on the Russian side – the Russian Federation has lost 11,000 soldiers in 2 weeks, as well as most of their trucks and 300 tanks(Sky News). Things have gotten so bad that the Russians have begun to conscript civilian vehicles into their supply lines, which wont fare much better than what they have lost. If specialized combat vehicles broke down and fell to small arms assault, these civilian trucks don’t stand a chance .
This is why the Russian Strategy in Ukraine has been to capture key cities and supply hubs as fast as possible, one way they are attempting to do this is by creating a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, a piece of land controlled by Russia but not directly connected to it. Connecting the peninsula to mainland Russia would give them a huge advantage when it comes to logistics and allow them to focus their resources on the west. Yet this is where Ukraine’s second great tactical advantage comes in– unyielding determination. It is said that the Hitler’s airstrikes on the UK known as “the Blitz” only did more to strengthen British resolve. The same can be said for Ukraine. Ukranians see what’s going on in their country, how their land is being burned and how their people are being killed and this has given them an unrelenting fury to stand against the Russians(NY Post)(The Week). The Russians may take territory, but they can’t hold it. The second Russian forces leave, Ukrainian civilians will rise up and retake the cities. This is in stark contrast to the Russian army, which reportedly was not informed why they were in Ukraine and what they were doing there (Sky News Australia).
Russian conscripts have no desire to stay and fight and are surrendering any chance they get, with videos circulating across the internet of captured Russian soldiers all saying the same thing “They lied to us, they told us we would be greeted as liberators, we did not know there would be resistance.”(Telegram Video) One Russian soldier, Galkin Sergey Alekseevich even apologized for the invasion saying “I apologize for myself, for my squad to every home, to every street, to every citizen of Ukraine, to the elderly, to women, to children for our invasion of these lands.”(NY post)
The Ukranians by themselves cannot hold out for long, they simply don’t have enough troops or supplies to be everywhere at once. Which is why Western Aid has been crucial to Ukraine’s survival, they would have not survived this long without The United States. Ukraine, thanks to the West, is now fighting a war of attrition– who can out last the other. With the sanctions imposed against Russia, the Russian economy has essentially collapsed, with discontent growing every day. Every day, more and more people go out to protest, and less and less war resources are being produced by the Russian Army. With western aid, Ukraine is guaranteed a constant stream of supplies coming in via Odessa and Poland which will allow them to outlast the Russians on almost every front.
Alongside that, Ukraine’s fourth major advantage comes along. They are the defenders, not the aggressors. The world sees them and hears them. Volunteers– professional battle hardened soldiers– have been flocking to Ukraine from across the world to bolster their ranks and not only that, provide some much needed experience to the Ukrainian conscripts. It’s not only former soldiers who are contributing– civilian activists are, too. Everything from tech billionaires to nuns are aiding Ukraine in every way they can. The more the Russians try to break the Ukrainian people the more the world and Ukraine springs into action in defense of their civil liberties. Around 16,000 Foreign volunteers from India to the USA have gone to Ukraine to help in the fight in every way they can.(Reuters)
This war is no longer a localized military conflict, it’s a global battle of wills in which public relations and economic sanctions weigh as heavily as javelin missiles and on-the-ground atrocities. Whatever happens, the entire world is watching.