Gustavo Vives

 On the 30th of October 2022, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was declared president elect of Brazil. He ran on policies such as environmentalism and the expansion of public services, an outspoken socialist, Lula was president from 2003-2010 and oversaw a period of great economic and social development in Brazil. “Although Lula only had a highschool education he sought to encourage education in Brazil,” says  Celia, a Brazilian Teacher here at Field. 

His opponent Jair Bolsonaro, is a former army colonel from Brazil’s Military Dictatorship, with autocratic tendencies, and homophobic and sexist beliefs. Bolsonaro has repeatedly embarrassed Brazil internationally, including allowing hundreds of thousands to die from Covid-19.(See Washington Post)

To many people abroad, the choice was clear in who to pick and who would likely win. Yet if that were the case, why did Lula only win with 50.9% of the vote?

To understand this election and its ramifications, one needs to understand Brazilian politics, namely what has happened in the run up to the previous presidential election. 

Lula may be an environmentalist, socialist and humanitarian, but he is not a saint. In fact he is a convicted felon. In April 2018 he was convicted and arrested for being the kingpin behind the largest corruption scandal in Latin American history, and was held responsible for the grand theft of $5.3 billion US dollars from the Brazilian people. 

See, here is the difference between American and Brazilian politics: there is no good guy, and there is no bad guy. There is only corruption and populism. 

Operation Car Wash, as it is called here in the United States, was not so much a corruption investigation but more of a death sentence to the status quo of Brazilian Society. One after another politicians, executives, and gang members were found to be linked to a much larger conspiracy.Lula was found to be the mastermind behind it all and was held responsible for the exploitation of the Brazilian people, many of the social programs he advocated turned out to just be fronts to funnel money into his own pockets. 

When many people voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 they did not vote for him as a person, but as a concept: The Anti-Lula. It is this Anti-Lula block and those who are genuinely racist, homophobic and sexist, who form Bolsonaro’s base. 

“The whole “Lava Jato” case… brought distrust to PT, and Lula’s arrest sealed the deal for Bolsonaro’s victory.” Lya, Brazilian 11th Grader. Lula supporters say Bolsonaro only won in 2018 because Lula was arrested (he was also running against Bolsonaro in 2018), in fact Lula’s trial was actually judged by a future Bolsonaro ally. Yet one cannot discount the fact that Lula’s allies in the Supreme Court willingly threw mountains of evidence away to get Lula exonerated. (See BBC)

It was this simplified series of events and Covid-19 which set the scene for the Brazilian 2022 elections. In Brazil, elections function in two rounds of voting. The first round includes all parties in Brazilian politics and in it, congressional seats, governorships and the presidential office are voted on. If one party achieves 50% of the vote in the first round of voting for president there is no second round of voting.

Many Brazillians expected Lula to win easily in the first round,“I thought Lula was so strong.” said Cellia, a Brazilian Teacher at The Field School. Due to Bolsonaro’s disastrous handling of Covid, and his failure to complete promises such as privatizing major government companies, he was wildly unpopular. Yet, Brazilian politics, being what they are, once more took a sharp turn. 

During a presidential debate a self proclaimed evangelical priest was put in as a candidate by one of the third parties specifically to aid Bolsonaro, this priest known as Padre Kelmon single handedly peeled off the facade of a humble honest man which Lula always presented in public by enraging the former president to the point where they were arguing even after the mics were off. This debate was broadcast to all of Brazil the day before voting, and made the Brazilian people remember why they had voted for Bolsonaro all those years ago. 

This allowed for Bolsonaro allies to sweep the congressional races across the country. This also forced the election into a second round with just Lula and Bolsonaro. Lula won the election without a congressional or gubernatorial majority, showing just how unpopular both Lula and Bolsonaro are. 

Bolsonaro has stayed quiet ever since his defeat was announced. His supporters have organized strikes in order to protest the supposedly stolen election, but nothing concrete has happened yet. (See PBS)

Yet now Brazillians are left to wonder what will Bolsonaro do now? The man after all is “The Trump of South America” Celia has a thought: “Hopefully to prison, Probably play golf with trump.” 

Others in the Brazilian student community have a more nuanced view: “That is a tough question” says Lya, “we originally thought Bolsonaro was going to be like trying to get a coup, but like no, currently he seems like he is just gonna be the leader of the opposition, ALSO i believe he only didn’t try to do a coup because the military did not support him.”